The United States

‘Trumpism’ faces its first broad domestic electoral test in November's midterms.

With Congressional midterm elections in November and the president positioning for re-election in 2020, US politics will be even more febrile this year than last. US foreign policy may be no less confusing. Republicans' slim and shaky Senate majority and their fear of losing the House of Representatives in November implies there will be little signature legislation again this year. Loss of Republican majorities in either House would embolden Democrats’ scrutiny of Trump's conduct and competency. If the Mueller investigation into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 elections implicates the president, attention will focus on his finances or immediate family.

  • Will the electoral need to keep the US economy humming along blunt Trump's enthusiasm for a trade war with China and giving North Korea ‘a bloody nose’?
  • How much scope is there for further deregulatory moves and judicial appointments to enshrine the conservative agenda?
  • Will the #MeToo anti-sexual harassment movement develop into a broader social movement for women's rights and equality with political consequences?
  • Can China's President Xi Jinping and Russia's President Vladimir Putin take further advantage of US withdrawal from shaping global governance, international trade and security?