The United States
‘Trumpism’ faces its first broad domestic electoral test in November's midterms.
With Congressional midterm elections in November and President Donald Trump positioning for re-election in 2020, US politics is even more febrile this year than last. Loss of Republican majorities in either the Senate or more likely the House of Representatives would embolden Democrats’ scrutiny of Trump's conduct and competency and minimise the prospects for further signature legislation. US foreign policy has been no less disconcerting, particularly for Washington's traditional allies, with 'America first' unilateralism breaking up the US-led multilateral order that has prevailed since the Second World War.
- Will the electoral need to keep the US economy humming along blunt Trump's enthusiasm for trade wars with allies and adversaries alike?
- How much scope is there for further deregulatory moves and judicial appointments to enshrine the conservative agenda?
- Will the #MeToo anti-sexual harassment movement develop into a broader social movement for women's rights and equality with political consequences?
- Can China's President Xi Jinping and Russia's President Vladimir Putin take further advantage of US withdrawal from shaping multilateral global governance, international trade and security?
Andrew W Mellon Professor of American GovernmentUniversity of Oxford
Director of Analysis & Managing EditorOxford Analytica
Associate Professor, Director of External AffairsUniversity of Warwick
Emeritus Fellow of Brasenose CollegeUniversity of Oxford