One belt, one road, many questions
China’s grand plan is certainly ‘grand’. But will it work? And if so, for whom?
China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ is one of the most remarkable external development strategies that a single state has envisaged. If only partly successful, it will place the Chinese economy at the centre of a dense network of business, financial, cultural and even political relationships that will enhance Beijing’s global standing. And that might be part of the problem. Many states along both belt and road will welcome Chinese trade, investment and expertise, especially if it is accompanied by access to China’s huge domestic market. But some will not out of fear that Beijing is keen to ‘buy’ geopolitical influence in South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East, where at best it is currently a secondary player. Geopolitics aside, there is the matter of commercial terms and conditions to consider.
- Does OBOR offer China’s partners a fair deal or one that creates undesirable dependencies?
- 'Ins and outs’: Which states and which sectors will benefit most from OBOR?
- Is OBOR mainly a challenge or an opportunity for established multinationals?
- Is OBOR here to stay or might it falter in the event of change in Beijing?
Professor of Economic GeographyUniversity of Nottingham
Advisor on Russian EconomicsOxford Analytica
Senior AnalystGavekal Dragonomics