An economic rebound offers multiple investment opportunities, but liquidity and political risks increase uncertainty.
By comparison with difficult recessions for the region’s two largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, and generally subdued regional growth over the past two years, economic prospects across Sub-Saharan Africa look more promising. Recent investment darlings such as Ethiopia and Ivory Coast continue to show strong GDP growth, while several governments are talking tough on fiscal management under new and revised IMF programmes. However, such fragile rebounds increasingly rest on burgeoning debt-burdens, raising liquidity risks across the region. Furthermore, brittle political transitions and rising authoritarianism pose new threats to stability with the potential for regional spillover.
- Can regional debt levels be contained and are governments committed to increasing the domestic tax base?
- Will improving commodity prices hamper revenue diversification efforts?
- What impact will urban electorates have on regional service-delivery and democratic participation?
- What role should the international and regional community play in fragile transitions in Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of the Congo?
Director, Pembani Remgro Infrastructure Fund and MemberInternational Advisory Board, Oxford Analytica
Professor of Democracy & International DevelopmentBirmingham University
Africa AnalystOxford Analytica
Associate Professor in African Politics & Official FellowUniversity of Oxford
Senior Africa AnalystOxford Analytica
Associate ProfessorRoskilde University, Denmark