Global Economy

The era of rapid economic growth is a thing of the past. How hard will it be to live with slower expansion?

The Trump administration’s policies point to faster short-term growth, assuming public spending is ramped up, but lower growth and financial stability in the longer term due to greater trade protectionism and relaxation of financial and environmental regulations.

Political risks dominate in Western Europe, but the economic risks have not disappeared: Italy and Greece look particularly fragile. Global monetary conditions are tightening, boosting the dollar and rendering vulnerable those economies highly dependent on external financing.

There are some brighter signs: China is slowly rebalancing its economy; and Brazil and Russia should emerge from recession. Meanwhile, technical progress could drive stronger global growth if it can be diffused and boost productivity.

  • Is stronger global economic activity just around the corner, led by Trump’s pro-business plans?
  • Or is the world on the brink of something nastier, perhaps stemming from Trump’s pro-trade protectionist plans?
  • What impact will Brexit, ECB policy tapering and the Italian elections have on the prospects for Euro-area growth?
  • Dollar direction, US Federal Reserve tightening and turnaround of key staff -- Who does it harm and who does it help?



  • Chairman of the Advisory board
    Center for Creative Leadership, Greater China
  • Fellow and Lecturer in Economics
    University of Oxford
  • Advisor on Global Economics and Finance
    Oxford Analytica
  • Executive VP, Chief Economist & Chief Strategy Officer
    The Conference Board
  • Fellow and Lecturer in Economics
    University of Oxford

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